Critic’s Notebook: FX’s Year to Shine in the Emmy Nominations

Here’s a quick breakdown by genre of the shows that made the cut—and some that sadly didn’t.

Comedy

With 23 nominations, the most ever for a comedy series in a single year, The Bear is obviously the front runner. It’s worth noting that the nominations are for last summer’s second season, the best to date for this emotionally harrowing and sumptuously produced and acted dramedy. Its chief competition are shows that are more traditionally funny: Max’s Hacks (recently winner of two major TCA Awards), Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, the final season of HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm and the sole representative from broadcast TV, ABC’s Abbott Elementary. Love seeing Reservation Dogs finally get its due, along with a surprise nod to D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai in the Lead Actor Category. And it’s about time Selena Gomez joined her Only Murders co-stars Steve Martin and Martin Short among the ranks of honorees. Ditto for Hacks’ Paul T. Downs, a co-creator and co-star, making it into the supporting ranks as Jean Smart’s long-suffering manager.

Snubs of note: Once again, the TV Academy is immune to the charms and the fabulous cast of CBS’s Ghosts, a reminder of the uphill climb any network series of merit faces to get attention amid the crowded landscape of streaming and premium cable. Dogs’ Devery Jacobs is the heart and soul of that show, and it’s too bad she was passed over. Also surprised that given the attention paid to What We Do in the Shadows, Harvey Guillén wasn’t acknowledged for Guillermo’s incredible character arc as he tried so hard to become a vampire.

The odds: Expect repeat wins for The Bear, star Jeremy Allen White (Lead Actor) and most likely Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Supporting), though Ayo Edebiri’s ascension to Lead Actress puts her head-to-head with Hacks‘ majestic Jean Smart, and that’s a toss-up. Also a tough call in the Supporting Actress race, with the Oscar cred of Only Murders’ Meryl Streep putting the heat on Hacks‘ deserving Hannah Einbinder (her best season to date), Abbott Elementary‘s past winner Sheryl Lee Ralph (and the uproarious Janelle James) and living legend Carol Burnett in the otherwise disappointing Apple TV+ comedy Palm Royale. In the Guest Performer categories, put your money on The Bear‘s Jamie Lee Curtis and Ryan Gosling for his killer work on Saturday Night Live.

Drama

When Shogun moved to this category from Limited Series after FX green-lit a Season 2 continuation (still sounds risky to me), it upended a field that felt wide open after the departure of Succession. The historical drama set in 1600s Japan is likely to dominate, with series stars Hiroyuki Sanada and Anna Sawai instantly favored to win, though there is welcome new blood in the ranks, including Slow Horses from Apple TV+ with the wonderful Gary Oldman as its cantankerous lead. Prime Video’s thrillers Mr. and Mrs. Smith and Fallout (filling the fantasy void left by The Last of Us not being in contention) also had good showings. The final season of Netflix’x The Crown and the polished entertainments of The Gilded Age and The Morning Show will probably have to wait for another year.

Snubs of note: Showtime’s polarizing The Curse is nowhere to be seen, including for Oscar winner Emma Stone. With four Morning Show nominations crowding the Supporting Actress field, there was no room for Slow Horses’ deliciously icy Kristen Scott Thomas.

The odds: Shogun will likely rule for series and lead performances (Sanada, Sawai), with competitive races in the Supporting categories, where Shogun scene stealer Tadanobu Asano faces past Morning Show winner Billy Crudup and Jon Hamm from the same series, plus another double nominee, Jonathan Pryce (as The Crown‘s Prince Philip, also a Guest Actor nominee for Slow Horses). Last year’s Supporting Actress winner Elizabeth Debecki, The Crown‘s ill-fated Diana, goes up against Gilded Age‘s marvelous dragon lady Christine Baranski and Morning Show‘s Holland Taylor, each an Emmy veteran. How to choose?

Limited Series

Always one of the most competitive fields, so overstuffed with quality that terrific series like Showtime’s Fellow Travelers and A Gentleman in Moscow, the WWII drama Masters of the Air from Apple TV+ and FX’s Feud: Capote vs. the Swans weren’t able to break into the Top Five. The disturbingly compelling Baby Reindeer is probably Netflix’s best shot at a major win this year, the steamer also scoring with Ripley, while FX’s most recent round of Fargo and HBO’s darker-than-dark True Detective: Night Country shouldn’t be counted out. (I’m also a fan of the delightful Lessons in Chemistry from Apple TV+.)

Snubs of note: A heartbreaking Jessica Lange from HBO’s late-in-the-game arrival The Great Lillian Hall and Kaitlyn Deven’s mostly silent performance in Hulu’s No One Will Save You nail-biter were among my top picks. I’d predicted all five male nominees for Lead Actor, lamenting the inability to acknowledge Moscow‘s Ewan McGregor, The Sympathizer‘s Hoa Xuande, Franklin‘s Michael Douglas, A Man in Full‘s Jeff Daniels, The Crowded Room‘s Tom Holland and The Tattooist of Auschwitz‘s Jonah Hauer-King. (I was more shocked by Tattooist‘s Harvey Keitel being overlooked.) I expected Showtime’s The Caine Mutiny Court Martial to make the TV movie cut. The nostalgia factor somehow failed to pay off for multiple winner Tony Shalhoub and his Mr. Monk’s Last Case swan song. Although Fargo fared well, where’s the great Jennifer Jason Leigh among the Supporting candidates?

The odds: Baby Reindeer and its stars (Richard Gadd for Lead Actor, Jessica Gunning for Supporting Actress) will be hard to beat, despite tough competition. I’m also rooting for Fellow Travelers’ Matt Bomer (Lead) and Jonathan Bailey (Supporting), though Robert Downey Jr.’s bravura multiple roles in HBO’s The Sympathizer are prime Emmy bait. The Lead Actress race (Jodie Foster, Brie Larson, Juno Temple, Naomi Watts, Sofia Vergara) may be the toughest of all to call.

Tune in come September to see how it all plays out.

The 76th Emmy Awards, Sunday, September 15, 8/7c, ABC

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